Socio-cultural Dynamics of German Cultural Landscapes (SoCuLa) – A Future-oriented Perspective

Background

Global biodiversity loss continues unabated. Unsustainable land use is a direct driver of this development, as The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has shown with the help of a comprehensive meta-analysis. However, the existing global targets for biodiversity conservation are hardly implemented by the member countries, if at all. A prominent example is the failure to meet the UN Aichi Targets adopted at the 10th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2010. In order to find causes and solutions for the lack of implementation, insights into societal developments is central. The behavior of society must be given greater consideration. Developments such as demographic change, digitalization or changes in values and norms also influence the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services. These changes influence land use at different levels. The project therefore focuses on identifying and analyzing these drivers and looks for approaches on how cultural landscapes can be sustainably shaped in the future.

Goals

The aim is to understand the influence of socio-cultural drivers on cultural landscapes and their biodiversity. We are pursuing three specific goals:

Development of indicators for cultural ecosystem services from a stakeholder´s perspective. In doing so, we will contribute to the advancement of ecosystem services multifunctionality.
Identification of main indirect social drivers of change in the Exploratories.
Participatory develop future social scenarios that can be integrated into the natural scientific modelling of land use and climate change.

Moreover, we will support the Biodiversity Exploratories to act as a competent partner for regional actors to analyze and enable transformation via e.g. the development of action plans for the regions.

Methods

The project follows a social-ecological research approach. The SoCuLa project’s canon of methods includes workshops in the project regions as well as expert interviews and a literature review. These social science data are combined in an interdisciplinary way together with natural scientists in order to develop a joint picture of nature and society.

A variety of ecosystem services are at the same time demanded and used by a wide range of stakeholder groups from the cultural landscape

Collaborators

Prof. Dr. Thomas Müller	Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F)	thomas.mueller[at]senckenberg.de
Prof. Dr. Pete Manning	University of Bergen	peter.manning[at]uib.no
Dr. Andrea Larissa Boesing	Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F)	alboesing[at]senckenberg.de
Dr. Margot Neyret	Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F)

Results

SoCuLa addresses the identified indirect drivers demographic change, digitalization/technology, value change, societal transformation, health and mobility by developing indicators to capture optimistic, pessimistic, and desirable future scenarios for the Biodiversity Exploratories regions. Using a mixed-methods approach, we systematically generate future pathways that serve as the foundation for modelling ES multifunctionality. Key milestones achieved so far include the identification of key trends and the development of indicators for the Morphological Matrix (Social science methodology of participatory scenario generation), as well as the co-creation of regional scenarios through participatory workshops. An online survey with regional stakeholders is currently underway to refine and evaluate these scenarios, with completion expected in March 2026.

To capture the cultural dimensions of ecosystem services (CES) across all three Exploratory regions, we conducted qualitative interviews in late 2024. These interviews explored how local communities perceive and value CES, and examined overlaps with Nature’s Contributions to People (NCPs). The analysis is currently being prepared for publication, with a focus on CES indicators, their relationship to NCPs, and their translation into a quantitative survey format. This survey is running in parallel with the future scenarios assessment and is expected to be completed by the end of March 2026. A publication presenting the qualitative findings is planned for 2026.